The Future of Dams Publications

Applied Geography. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2023.102942

Ecological Economics doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107624

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2022.112898

Fisheries Management & Ecology doi: 10.1111/fme.12513

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences doi: 10.1139/cjfas-2020-0402

Submitted to the University of New Hampshire in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Earth and Environmental Sciences.
DISSERTATION ABSTRACT:
Administrative, technical, and financial barriers often prevent sufficient collection of data for stream restoration project evaluation (Roni & Beechie, 2012; Bernhardt et al. 2005; NRC 1992). This lack of evaluation and understanding of restoration impacts can lead to the same misinformed strategies being repeated across restoration sites (Sommerville & Pruitt, 2004). This is particularly relevant for dam management, as the river ecosystem response of dam management strategies, like removal, are not fully understood due to minimal pre-/post-removal studies (Foley et al. 2017; Hart et al. 2002; Poff & Hart, 2002). Stream restoration practitioners need ecological assessment approaches that are affordable, repeatable, objective, and logistically feasible to develop science-based restoration techniques. This dissertation demonstrates how ecological evaluation workflows that use consumer-grade drone imagery coupled with structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry provide an affordable, feasible, adaptable, and flexible solution to many of the challenges facing stream restoration, improving the frequency, accuracy, precision, and coverage of evaluations and improving our knowledge of ecological impacts from restoration practices. The first chapter explores how illustrative drone products (videos, orthomosaics, and 3D models), made using a simple structure-from-motion photogrammetry workflow, can be coupled with a visual stream ecological assessment protocol to provide a remote visual evaluation and ecological condition archive approach. The second chapter explores the intersection of drones, close-range remote sensing, and data science. The work demonstrates how hybrid feature sets derived from the drone RGB orthomosaics and digital surface models can be used to accurately map and quantify riparian vegetation structure via machine learning algorithms for conventional classification tasks that focus on classifying a single site, providing sufficiently accurate results with workflows amenable to use by restoration practitioners. The third chapter demonstrates how drone workflows for mapping and quantifying riparian vegetation structure as well as erosion and deposition throughout fluvial environments can be used to evaluate and monitor changes pre-/post-dam removal, using the Sawyer Mill dam removal project in Dover, NH, USA as a case study. The limitations and efficacies of the drone approaches vs. conventional ecological approaches are compared, and the study demonstrates how the drone approaches leverage the drone’s aerial perspective to provide holistic ecological evaluation data at a landscape scale.

Submitted to the University of New Hampshire in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Hydrology.
THESIS ABSTRACT:
Impounded sediment reduces reservoir storage capacity, which adversely affects dam functionality. For example, reduced capacity limits the ability of flood control dams to mitigate flood peaks, water supply dams to meet demands, and hydropower dams to produce adequate electricity during low flows. Larger sediment volumes also increase the risk of dam failure and increase the logistical complexity of dam removal, an increasingly popular ecosystem restoration method. A model to predict the impounded sediment volume would be useful for decision makers in a watershed or state that need to allocate limited resources to multiple dams. A cross-site comparison among 34 dams was conducted to examine how the volume of impounded sediment was related to sediment supply, transport, and settling. Proxies for sediment supply, transport, and settling were obtained from published datasets and remote sensing. Most methods used to remotely sense proxies were derived from previously published research, but this thesis also developed a novel remote sensing method for locating the position riverbanks. This novel method was found to accurately predict the location of riverbanks in several different river morphologies. Regression analysis was used to quantify relationships between the impounded sediment volume and sediment supply, transport, and settling proxies. Impoundment attributes such as the impoundment surface area, impoundment aspect ratio and dam age were the best predictors of the impounded sediment volume.

Submitted to the University of Maine in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Wildlife Ecology and Wildlife Conservation.
THESIS ABSTRACT:
After beginning life in the Sargasso Sea, American eel enter river systems as juveniles and swim upstream in pursuit of freshwater habitat. Many encounter dams during this migration which act as barriers to upstream movement and limit eel establishment in headwater systems. Some dams have been retrofitted with fishways to improve watershed connectivity, but the individual selection imposed by these structures remains uncharacterized. We considered whether individual differences in behavior (i.e., personality) may be used to predict the propensity of juveniles to use a passage structure, suggesting that eel personality may predict access to habitat upstream of dams. Migrating, juvenile eels (n=63) were captured from a tidal tributary, and we measured the expression of bold and exploratory behaviors in classic animal personality assays (open field and emergence). Then we assessed the propensity for individuals to volitionally climb through a passage structure and assessed passage outcomes. Finally, we compared consistent behavioral tendencies and climbing propensity.

We show evidence for personality in young eels by demonstrating among-individual variation in bold and exploratory behaviors that were consistent across repeated trials in open field and emergence assays. Mean swimming speed in the open field was a predictor of climbing propensity; faster fish were less likely to climb through a passage structure. For successful climbers, climbing time was negatively associated with fish length, offering evidence for potential size-based selection on climbing ability during upstream passage at dams. Our results suggest strong potential for selective pressure on both climbing motivation and ability during fish passage Preventing a subset of individuals from accessing upstream habitat may have unintended consequences for both aquatic ecosystems and American eel populations.

Eels that successfully recruit to habitat upstream of dams may spend decades in freshwater systems before making a single, terminal migration to spawn in the Sargasso Sea. Therefore, individuals that ascended dams as juvenile, must navigate these same dams while moving downstream as mature adults, where passage is commonly associated with mortality and delay. We conducted a four-year acoustic telemetry study that characterized passage risks through two hydropower dams (West Enfield and Milford) in the Penobscot River, Maine, USA. We released tagged fish (n=355) at two sites, estimated survival and delay under variable river conditions, and compared performance among dammed and free-flowing river sections. Survival rates (standardized per river km) were lower at West Enfield (Φ_rkm = 0.984 ± 0.006 SE) and Milford (Φ_rkm = 0.966 ± 0.007 SE), compared to undammed River sections (Φ_rkm = 0.998 ± 0.0003 SE). This accounted for 8.7%, 14.2%, and 8.7% cumulative mortality through sections classified as West Enfield (4.4km), Milford (5.5km), or River (58.1km) respectively. Fish that already passed an upstream dam incurred higher downstream mortality compared to individuals without passage experience. Additionally, fish endured long delays at dams, and >10% of fish were delayed >24h. Low flows exacerbated the risk of mortality and delay. These results offer evidence for direct, latent, and sub-lethal consequences of dam passage for migrating eels.

Submitted to the University of New Hampshire in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Civil and Environmental Engineering.
DISSERTATION ABSTRACT:
Floods lead to the overtopping of dams which is the main cause of dam failures and can result in significant loss of lives and property. This study investigates how the hydrological failure probability of dams in New England may change with future changes in climate and land use. Non-stationarity of future precipitation caused by the anthropogenic climate change and altered watershed concentration times caused by anthropogenic alterations such as urbanization, industrialization or deforestation can impact the mechanisms of runoff production and transfer. This can potentially change the frequency, magnitude, or duration of floods. Therefore, due to different flood patterns and consequently different hydrological failure probability, dams in New England likely have very different future risk levels. As hydrological failure probability indicators, the magnitude and frequency, and duration of floods exceeding a threshold are used to determine the variability of hydrological failure probability. Aside from the historical measured and gridded climate and land use data, this study uses one high temporal- and spatial-resolution, dynamically downscaled climate change projection and 29 statistically downscaled climate change projections as well as four land use projections from “The New England Landscape Futures Project”. Results show that basin response in New England during high-flow events has not significantly changed during recent decades in spite of recent changes in climate and runoff generation mechanisms. Also, dammed basins with higher storage capacity are found to have a decrease in basin response and flood peaks while there is not enough evidence the significance of urban development on high-flow events in New England. It is likely that dams in New England experience higher levels of hydrological failure probability. This is because compared to historical data, future floods are likely to increase in magnitude and frequency, but they are not likely to last longer. Also, the results show more accentuated increase in the frequency compared to the magnitude of future floods. This study will help dam owners and state regulators plan for more resilient dam operations and more rigorous dam maintenance and account for the future risk associated with the approximately 15,000 dams in New England.

Energy Policy, 143, 111457. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111457

Submitted to the University of New Hampshire in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master in Science in Natural Resources: Environmental Conservation.
THESIS ABSTRACT:
New Hampshire’s aquatic resources provide many important ecosystem services and values, such as recreation, wildlife habitat, flood storage, nutrient reduction, community identity and aesthetic enjoyment. However, the many competing interests that seek to benefit from New Hampshire’s aquatic resources present challenges for efforts to steward public aquatic resources in the public interest. This thesis presents findings about the environmental justice outcomes of New Hampshire’s compensatory mitigation program, the Aquatic Resource Mitigation (ARM) fund, to inform aquatic restoration policy.

Previous studies have found evidence that aquatic restoration programs can lead to systemic resource relocation and patterns of inequality in outcomes. Using geospatial and statistical analyses, this research compares census-tract level socioeconomic data on specific demographic characteristics (minority population, low education, population density and income) with the spatial location of New Hampshire compensatory mitigation program sites. Census tracts are analyzed according to groupings at the state level and for two service areas with different population densities: the Merrimack and Middle Connecticut Service Areas. This research also applies a geospatial approach to recommend areas where outreach could be expanded to increase environmental justice communities’ participation in the ARM fund.

Consistent with previous compensatory mitigation and environmental justice literature, this research finds demographic characteristics are an important consideration for environmental justice. At the statewide census-tract level, I find that populations around mitigation sites are more likely to have a lower percentage of nonwhite populations, lower population density, and higher income, as compared to sites without mitigation sites. Populations around permit sites are also likely to have lower population densities. I also find that this level of analysis is important to recognize inequalities and inform natural resource management decisions. In contrast, to the statewide results, I find significant demographic differences within the relatively low population density Middle Connecticut region. For the Merrimack region, which is larger and more diverse, results are similar to the statewide analysis: I find that populations around mitigation sites are more likely to have a lower percentage of nonwhite populations. Unlike the statewide analysis, I find that populations around mitigation sites are more likely to have lower educational attainment and populations around permit sites are more likely to have higher incomes.

Then, I identified 26 environmental justice communities with aquatic restoration opportunities and found that almost half of these communities have participated in the ARM fund by submitting proposals to receive mitigation funding. Using an optimizing hot spot analysis and a heat map, I identified three environmental justice communities that have experienced significant wetland loss and to which the ARM Fund could target outreach: Manchester, Dover and Newington.

This thesis research is intended to provide guidance to state agencies, cities and towns, nongovernmental organizations, and others interested in advancing protection of New Hampshire’s aquatic resources. The analytic methods contribute to broader research into the human dimensions of water policy.

ProQuest Dissertation or Thesis https://www.proquest.com/docview/2445435236

Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 161, 104990. doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.104990

Memorandum prepared for the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Coastal and  Partners Program. Brett Still and Art Gold facilitated URI support for this publication and 7 Future of Dams graduate students were recognized for their assistance with field work, data management and processing, and GIS mapping.

Submitted to the University of Maine in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
DISSERTATION ABSTRACT:
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) is the regulatory body that oversees non-federally owned dam operations in the United States. With more than 300 hydropower dams across the U.S. seeking FERC relicense between 2020 and 2029, and 135 of those dams within the Northeast region alone, it is prudent to anticipate and plan for such decision-making processes. Anyone may be involved in FERC relicensing; in fact, FERC solicits public comment and requires the licensee to hold a public hearing during the process. Parties may also elect to apply for legal intervenor status, allowing them a more formal entry into the relicensing process. However, there are two key barriers that may keep the public from participating in a dam decision-making process in an impactful way. The first of these barriers is access to information. Having access to the types of information that matters to FERC is important, because it allows the participant to communicate their support or concerns about the relicensing using the language of the process. In particular, participants other than the licensee may not have access to project economic information, so this is a focus in my research. The second barrier is capacity to participate in a way that impacts the process (i.e., institutional knowledge about what kinds of decision criteria (factors) and decision alternatives (project options), as well as relevant data, that FERC typically weighs in their decision making or has considered in the past). Actors not privy to license information (perhaps encountering difficulty in navigating the FERC eLibrary), lacking knowledge of FERC process conventions, or otherwise unfamiliar with hydropower dam schemes or operations have substantial hurdles preventing their effective participation. My research, situated in the sustainability science arena, addresses hydropower project cost and performance assessment and multi-criteria considerations for dam decision support. I lead the development and assessment of an online Dam Decision Support Tool aimed at addressing barriers to the hydropower dam decision-making process. My work demonstrates possibilities for tailoring decision tools to incorporate stakeholder perspectives into decision making about hydropower dams.

Submitted to the University of Rhode Island in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental & Natural Resources Economics.
DISSERTATION ABSTRACT:
Many dams throughout New England are approaching the end of their engineered lifespan. Individual dam owners and governments at various levels find themselves navigating decisions to repair, remove, or modify the aging infrastructure. These decisions have implications for the ecosystem services that depend on the presence or absence of dams. By coordinating the ecosystem service tradeoffs at large scales we can more efficiently utilize the productive capacity of river systems. Implementing a large-scale coordinated approach, however, requires understanding stakeholder preferences at different scales, and the willingness of decision makers to coordinate (or not). In this dissertation I address issues surrounding a coordinated approach to ecosystem service provision with the goal of facilitating better decisions. In the first chapter, I administer a choice experiment survey to study how environmental risk preferences interact with scale to determine willingness to pay for ecosystem services from dam removal. Improved understanding of scale-dependent preferences can allow nonmarket valuation estimates for ecosystem services to integrate more smoothly into decisions at a variety of scales. In the second chapter, I explore environmental federalism in dam removal decisions (i.e., whether state goals diverge from larger-scale optimization). I use matching and instrumental variable techniques to model the determinants of dam removal using a large, spatially explicit dataset. Results suggest that states consider border proximity when selecting dams for removal, indicating a need for new incentive structures to realize efficiency gains from coordination. In the final chapter, I study how a production possibilities model can be combined with public preference data from a choice experiment, expressed as indifference curves, to identify socially preferred ecosystem service outcomes from dam removal. I find that the approach is useful for pinpointing areas of agreement and disagreement between stakeholder groups with varying preferences.

UNH Scholars Repository https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1012

ProQuest Dissertation or Thesis https://www.proquest.com/docview/2434061589

PLOS ONE, 15(3), e0229501. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0229501

Poroi, 12(1). doi:10.13008/2151-2957.1302

Submitted to the University of Maine in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Ecology and Environmental Sciences.
DISSERTATION ABSTRACT:
The term governance has undergone somewhat of an evolution since its inception, originally describing the act of governing, it has come to represent a more collaborative form of governing which is distinct from hierarchical control models (Marin and Mayntz, 1991). Collaborative governance refers to the systems associated with public policy decision making and resource management which span the jurisdictional boundaries of public agencies, levels of government, and/or public and private spheres in order to pursue a public policy goal or outcome (Emerson et al., 2012). Environmental management is often considered an inherently collaborative effort, as ecological systems and species rarely fall neatly within political or other human constructed boundaries (Bodin, 2017a).

Collaborative environmental governance systems can be a response to joint-jurisdictional management, where multiple managing organizations have legal jurisdiction over a species or system. This is often the case with species listed under the United States Endangered Species Act (ESA). Collaborations can also aid in dealing with the challenges of operating in a resource limited world. By forming collaborative governance structures, organizations aim to leverage resources, expand knowledge of the system, and avoid working at cross-purposes (Emerson and Nabatchi, 2015; Ulibarri and Scott, 2017). Whatever the original motivator, there are practical challenges associated with implementing a collaborative governance structure, and the success with which these structures operate varies greatly (Emerson et al., 2012).

Using the Atlantic Salmon Recovery Framework (ASRF) as a mixed-methods case study, we aim to further our understanding of communication, collaboration, institutional capacity for change, and barriers and opportunities for collaboration through Communication Network Analysis (CNA) and semi-structured interviews with members of the ASRF. The Gulf of Maine (GOM) Distinct Population Segment of Atlantic salmon (DPS) is managed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the Maine Department of Marine Resources (MDMR), and the Penobscot Nation (PN). Individuals from these four organizations make up the ASRF, the current governance structure for Atlantic salmon management and recovery in the state of Maine.

In chapter 2, we describe the theoretical frameworks, methods, results, and significant implications of the CNA we conducted. 95% (N=41) of the individuals identified as members of the ASRF (N=43) participated in an online sociometric survey. The sociometric survey asked participants about their position within their organization and the ASRF, how long they have worked in Atlantic salmon management and/or recovery, the frequency with which they communicate with other members of the ASRF, and the productivity of those communications, using open and close-ended questions. In chapter 3, we describe the theoretical frameworks, methods, results, and significant implication of the semi-structured interviews we conducted. 68% (N=28) of individuals who were invited (N=41), participated in a semi-structured interview. The semi-structured interviews focused on member perceptions of ASRF operations, procedures, strengths, weaknesses, and power dynamics.

The CNA reveled that there is relatively high network density for individual communication (56%), but that connections are decentralized, a characteristic that can be incompatible with some organizational structures. Challenges reported by members fit into three general categories; 1. slow and ineffective decision-making, 2. confusion surrounding leadership and accountability, and 3. low adaptive capacity. The semi-structured interviews suggest that the lack of integration across organizations could be due in part to members reporting issues associated with leadership, operational transparency, lack of trust, and perceived differences in management styles and objectives. The lack of leadership was evident in both the CNA and interview data. As the managing organizations work to restructure the ASRF, the results and recommendations provided in this thesis have served as a valuable tool in identifying strengths, weaknesses, institutional barriers, and capacity of change.

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. doi: 10.1007/s00477-019-01726-7

Many of New Hampshire’s dams are reaching the end of their lifespan and require expensive maintenance or removal in order to meet safety standards. While engineers and public officials struggle with the scale of the challenge surrounding various dam management alternatives, including removal, what does the New Hampshire public think? In this brief, authors Natallia Leuchanka, Catherine Ashcraft, Kevin Gardner, and Lawrence Hamilton present results from statewide surveys in New Hampshire that explore public views about dam removal. They report that a majority of respondents in three Granite State Polls prefer to remove dams when the alternative is to keep them for maintenance of waterfront property values, preservation of industrial history, or maintenance of lake- and pond-based recreation. A majority of survey respondents prefer to keep dams when dams are for hydropower generation. Respondents’ age, gender, and party affiliation often predict their preference for dam removal. Levels of formal education do not make much difference. Younger respondents, women, and Democrats are more likely to support dam removal, although this varies somewhat depending on the tradeoffs.

Science of The Total Environment, 669, 833–843. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.042

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 201807437. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1807437115.

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 90, 945–956. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2018.04.014

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 147(3), 525–540. doi: 10.1002/tafs.10053

Nature Sustainability, 1(4), 184–189. doi: 10.1038/s41893-018-0050-z

Maine Policy Review, 26.2: 9-18.

Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science. doi: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.442.

Resilience 2017 Conference Proceedings. Stockholm Waterfront Congress Centre, Sweden, August 20-23, 2017.

Society and Natural Resources, 1–16. doi:10.1080/08941920.2017.1315653

River Research and Applications, 33(7), 1004–1015. doi: 10.1002/rra.3155.

Philosophy and Rhetoric 50(1), 1-25. doi: 10.5325/philrhet.50.1.0001

Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 4, 000090. doi: 10.12952/journal.elementa.000090

Reflections: A Journal of Public Rhetoric, Civic Writing, and Service Learning, 16(1), 75-95

Technical Report. Luc Hoffmann Institute, Pew Charitable Trusts, California Ocean Science Trust, Science and Resilience Institute at Jamaica
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